[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 23 10:54:01 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed increased from 320km/s to be ~370km/s at the
time of this report after the arrival of a sudden geomagnetic
impulse at 0030UT that was associated with a weak partial halo
CME on 17Oct. Bz, the north south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged from +/-8nT with sustained southward periods
of -5nT between 00UT-10UT and 17UT-23UT. Very Low solar activity
is expected over the next few days as the disk remains spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 32242233
Darwin 11 32232233
Townsville 12 32242233
Learmonth 11 42132232
Canberra 10 22242123
Hobart 11 23242123
Casey(Ant) 12 3-332233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 6 Quiet
24 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with the arrival of a sudden geomagnetic impulse
from the partial full halo CME on 17Oct. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected over the next 24 hours with Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 24Oct-25Oct due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 10 near predicted monthly values
24 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours.
Depressed conditions during local day for Equatorial regions
while Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions experienced enhanced
conditions during local day and night. Normal ionospheric support
for high latitudes. Continued sporadic E for low latitudes. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with possible
depressed periods for low latitudes and enhancements for mid
latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 279 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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