[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 20 10:53:24 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 280km/s to 320km/s over the UT
day. Bz, the north south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-4nT. Very Low solar activity is expected
over the next few days as the visible solar disk remains spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11212211
Darwin 3 11102102
Townsville 6 22212221
Learmonth 3 11112201
Canberra 1 00101100
Hobart 4 11212211
Casey(Ant) 7 22321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 4 Quiet
21 Oct 4 Quiet
22 Oct 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected over the next three days with possible
Unsettled to Active periods due to the slight chance of a glancing CME
and coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Depressed conditions during local day and night for Equatorial
regions and during local day for Northern AUS regions. Enhanced
conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days, with depressed periods for low
latitudes and possible enhancements for mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 10100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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