[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 19 10:47:56 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Oct             20 Oct             21 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Vsw observed by the ACE spacecraft was in the narrow 
300-320km/sec range but appeared turbulent towards the end of 
the UT day. The solar wind is expected to increase to moderate 
levels during the next 24-48 hours due to the leading edge of 
thin coronal holes in both hemispheres, visible in SOHO spacecraft 
EIT imagery, rotating into geoeffective position. The solar disc 
remains spotless. The heated region located at S29 recently crossed 
into the west limb shows plage in h-alpha and a simple magnetic 
structure, but no spots. There is a chance of subflaring, although 
very low solar activity is expected over the next three days. 
The SIDC (RWC-Belgium) has noted this region produced eruptions/EIT 
waves around Oct 16 16:00 and again around Oct 17 19:00 and that 
LASCO images show hints of a halo CME the first event. This is 
likely to be slow moving and weak but may impact the geomagnetic 
field during the 19th.The emerging flux region at S12 on the 
east limb may develop spots as it transits the solar disc. Returning 
region 1027 shows a weak and simple magnetic complexity and is 
unlikely to develop any spots this transit. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112111
      Darwin               2   11002101
      Townsville           6   22212221
      Learmonth            3   12003101
      Canberra             1   01001100
      Hobart               4   12112211
      Casey(Ant)           6   23212111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   0000 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Oct     4    Quiet 
20 Oct     4    Quiet 
21 Oct     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours 
at mid and low latitudes and Quiet-Unsettled at polar latitudes. 
an extended IMF Bz southward observed on th eACE spacecraft 05-14UT 
did not appear to significantly increase magnetic activity as 
the magnitude was only -2nT. There is a possibility of a weak 
CME (see Solar) clipping the geomagnetic field in the next 24h 
and the solar wind speed may increase moderately as two this 
coronal holes start to move into geoeffective position. Expect 
Quiet-Unsettled levels at mid to low-latitudes and Quiet to Active 
conditions at polar latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Oct     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
20 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
21 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF frequencies are expected to remain near or slightly 
below monthly predicted levels with night enhancements at mid 
latitudes and night reductions at near-equatorial latitudes. 
Mildly enhanced geomagnetic activity expected in the next 24-48 
hours may raise ionisation and frequencies. Extensive sporadic 
E was noted near local midnight at near-equatorial stations and 
evening hours at northern Australian stations. was noted in the 
Australian region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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