[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 18 10:07:48 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Ace space craft showed the solar wind speed to decrease
from 370 to 300 km/s over the last 24 hours and is presently
at 310 km/s. The solar wind is expected to increase to around
400 km/s during the next 24 hours due to weak coronal holes visible
in EIT imagery. The solar disc remains spotless at this time,
however noted an emerging flux region at S12E46 that may develope
spots as it transits the solar disc. Returning region 1027 shows
a weak and simple magnetic complexity and is unlikely to develope
any spots this transit. The heated region located at S29W04 shows
plage in h-alpha and a simple magnetic structure at this time,
but no spots. There is a chance of subflaring, although very
low solar activity is expected over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 1 01100002
Townsville 4 12211111
Learmonth 1 10010002
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 2 11111011
Casey(Ant) 4 22211011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2210 0110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Oct 4 Quiet
20 Oct 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Expect quiet levels of geomagnetic activity at mid to low-latitudes
and quiet to unsettled conditions at high latitudes over the
next 24 hours due to a increase in the solar wind speed. Quiet
conditions are expected to prevail on days 19 and 20 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF frequencies are expected to remain mostly near monthly
predicted levels with slight depressions at low to mid latitudes
due to minimal solar activity during the next three days. Blanketing
sporadic E was noted at Darwin station during evening-early local
night hours. Ocassional sporadic E was noted in the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 64700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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