[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 21 10:43:40 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Oct             22 Oct             23 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours. 
New region 1028 was observed at 0430UT at N23E62 and is a single 
A type spot. Solar wind speed remained at 280kms over the UT 
day. Bz, the north south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field ranged between +/-3nT. Very Low solar activity is expected 
over the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               2   11100002
      Townsville           4   12211121
      Learmonth            1   11100001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               2   11110011
      Casey(Ant)           5   22320111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Oct     4    Quiet 
22 Oct     5    Quiet 
23 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet conditions are expected over the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Oct    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
22 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours. Depressed conditions again during local day and night for 
Equatorial regions and during local day for Northern AUS regions. 
Enhanced conditions again for Southern AUS/NZ regions during 
local night. Normal ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with possible depressed 
periods for low latitudes and enhancements during local night 
for mid latitudes. Possible meteor shower activity in the next 
24-48 hours could result in enhanced sporadic E. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 303 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    11400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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