[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               69/3

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from 340 to 370 km/s and 
is expected to remain in this range or slightly above. Active 
region 1027 produced a B7-class xray flare at 0255 UT, 01 October, 
as it rotated out of view. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22111011
      Darwin               2   21110001
      Townsville           5   12221121
      Learmonth            2   22010000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               2   11111011
      Casey(Ant)           6   33-11111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1111 1021     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct     4    Quiet 
03 Oct     4    Quiet 
04 Oct     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to conditions observed in the equatorial 
and Australian region with unsettled conditions noted in the 
Antarctic region. Expect quiet conditions for the next three 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Oct     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support expected for all regions 
over the next 24 hours with a possibilty of slight depressions 
in the equitorial and north Australian regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    57500 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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