[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 1 09:46:21 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: No significant flare activity was noted over the last
24 hours. Around 0100 UT, 29 September, the solar wind speed
stepped up from 300 to 370 km/s due to a weak coronal hole. This
was earlier then expected. The present solar wind speed is 340
km/s. Expect the solar wind to slowly dissapate over the next
24 hrs. Active region 1027 is slowly decaying and not expected
to produce any significant flares as it rotates out of view.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 8 32223221
Canberra 4 22212011
Hobart 6 22312111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Oct 6 Quiet
03 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions observed at low
to mid latitudes with unsettled to active conditions noted at
high latitudes over the last 24 hours due to an increase in the
solar wind speed. Expect the solar wind conditions to slowly
settle back to quiet levels over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support expected for all regions
over the next 24 hours with a possibilty of slight depressions
in the equitorial and north Australian regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 23800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list