[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Oct             04 Oct             05 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from 320 to 390 km/s and 
is expected to remain in this range. The solar disc is spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               1   01001001
      Townsville           5   12122122
      Learmonth            1   11111000
      Canberra             0   00011000
      Hobart               3   11121111
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1101 0010     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Oct     4    Quiet 
04 Oct     4    Quiet 
05 Oct     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect quiet conditions for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Oct     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Oct     1    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Oct     1    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Oct     1    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support expected for all regions 
over the next 24 hours with a possibilty of slight depressions 
in the equitorial and north Australian regions. Noted periods 
of blanketing sporadic E in the Brisbane area during the local 
day. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    65400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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