[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 18 10:02:35 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed remains around 300km/s and IMF Bz stable.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next three days. A recurrent coronal hole wind stream is expected
to move into geoeffective position 20 Nov increasing IMF Bz
fluctuations and solar wind density at that time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 0 10000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Casey(Ant) 6 22321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 1 Quiet
19 Nov 1 Quiet
20 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions next two days (18-19 Nov). Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected 20 Nov due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream. Isolated Active conditions
possible at high latitudes 20 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values
19 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day with
normal ionospheric support in the Australian and sub-Antarctic
regions. Some variable MUF depressions occurred in the equatorial
regions. Normal HF conditions expected next two days (18-19 Nov).
Some degraded HF conditions possible 20 Nov in response to enhanced
geomagnetic activity, particularly at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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