[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed remains around 300km/s and IMF Bz relatively 
stable. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111011
      Darwin               2   21001011
      Townsville           5   22211121
      Learmonth            1   11001011
      Canberra             1   10001010
      Hobart               3   11-31010
      Casey(Ant)           7   23222121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1120 2210     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov     3    Quiet 
18 Nov     3    Quiet 
19 Nov     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Nov   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% over UT day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values 
18 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values 
19 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Normal 
HF conditions expected today (17 Nov) and for the next three 
days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    59800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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