[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 19 10:02:33 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
Two new spot groups were numbered AR1032 (N17E23) and AR1033
(N22E51), both stable magnetic beta class spot groups. The solar
wind speed remains around 300km/s and IMF Bz stable. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
A recurrent coronal hole wind stream is expected to move into
geoeffective position 20 Nov increasing IMF Bz fluctuations and
solar wind density at that time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 3 21111111
Canberra 1 01100001
Hobart 1 11110001
Casey(Ant) 7 23321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 3 Quiet
20 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods.
21 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions 19 Nov. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
expected 20-21 Nov due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream, with isolated Active conditions possible at
high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal over the UT day with normal
ionospheric support in the Australian and sub-Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions expected 19 Nov. Some degraded HF conditions
possible 20-21 Nov in response to enhanced geomagnetic activity,
particularly at high latitudes. MUFs near predicted monthly values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 15800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list