[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 May             25 May             26 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Emerging flux region (EFR) 1018 (S33E38) now shows three 
spots. This EFR is likely to have plage fluctuations and enhancements 
as it developes over the next three days. The solar wind speed 
is within normal levels ranging from 360 to 400 km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Darwin               3   21110111
      Townsville           5   12221122
      Learmonth            3   21110112
      Camden               2   11110111
      Canberra             1   00100011
      Hobart               1   00110111
      Casey(Ant)           5   12221121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              11   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1012 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 May     4    Quiet 
25 May     4    Quiet 
26 May     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 May     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 May     5    near predicted monthly values 
25 May     5    near predicted monthly values 
26 May     5    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: High latitudes show slightly enhanced MUFs, however 
the ionogram traces are weak during the local night time. Mid 
to low latitudes showed ocassional sporadic E, particularly during 
the evening hours. Expect these conditions to prevail over the 
next three days with near predicted monthly MUF values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    69800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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