[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 23 09:20:21 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: There is an emerging flux region (EFR) at S33E52 which
appears to have been associated with a weak coronal mass ejection
(CME) on the south east limb and first seen on the lasco C2 images
at 1154UT 21 May, not expected to be geo-effective. This EFR
is likely to produce subflaring over the next three days. The
solar wind speed is within normal levels ranging from 300 to
420 km/s and at the time of the report was approximately 390
km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11122221
Darwin 4 11022211
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 11132221
Camden 3 01022220
Canberra 3 00022210
Hobart 3 00123110
Casey(Ant) 6 12123221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 19 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 4 Quiet
24 May 4 Quiet
25 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 5 near predicted monthly values
24 May 5 near predicted monthly values
25 May 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for all regions. Expect MUFs to be near predicted monthly
values for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 77100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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