[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 25 09:50:29 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1018 has not shown any significant change in spot size
over the last 24 hours. Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT over the
UT day and solar wind velocity remained within normal levels
between 360km/s to 380km/s. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 3 21110012
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 2 11110111
Camden 2 12110011
Canberra 1 11010001
Hobart 1 11010001
Casey(Ant) 4 22111211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0011 0222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 4 Quiet
26 May 4 Quiet
27 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 5 near predicted monthly values
26 May 5 near predicted monthly values
27 May 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for
all regions, with continued sporadic E for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions. Enhanced conditions for Antarctic regions with occasional
disturbed periods. Similar conditions are expected over the next
3 days with near predicted monthly MUF values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 55300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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