[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 7 09:52:23 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disc remains spotless. A north-south 
elongated recurrent coronal hole is rotating into geoeffective 
position earlier than expected with solar wind enhanced sharply 
to ~450 km/sec from 16UT and some rise since towards 500km/sec. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111122
      Darwin               5   22111122
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            7   32122222
      Camden               3   11111112
      Canberra             2   11000112
      Hobart               3   11011112
      Casey(Ant)           5   12112222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The high speed solar wind from the recurrent coronal 
hole has taken effect earlier than expected at 16UT. However 
mid and low latitudes are still showing Quiet levels. High latitudes 
are showing Unsettled to Minor Storm at the auroral oval but 
still Quiet inside the polar cap. Expect isolated Active periods 
in the next two days at mid to low latitudes and more extensive 
high latitude Active levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Expect minor disturbances next two days from coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 May     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May     8    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
08 May     6    0 to 5% above predicted monthly values 
09 May     2    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Extensive night-time spread-F observed at equatorial 
and northern Australian sites indicating strong upwelling in 
the equatorial ionospheric anomaly. Cocos Is also observed strong 
night sporadic-E. Coronal hole is starting to take effect so 
moderately enhanced geomagnetic conditions are expected to slightly 
raise MUFs in the next couple of days but also raise variability. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    25800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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