[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 6 09:53:18 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disc remains spotless. A north-south
elongated recurrent coronal hole is rotating towards the centre
of the solar disc. It will rotate into geoeffective position
in 2-3 days. The STEREO-B spacecraft, which observes the solar
wind spiral ahead of Earth, showed a solar wind enhancement to
450-500km/sec for ~12 hours and similar conditions should be
expected at Earth 7-8th May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 5 12212212
Learmonth 2 11101102
Camden 1 11000101
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 0 00000100
Casey(Ant) 4 12111211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1112 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 4 Quiet
07 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods on 7-8th May at mid
and low latitudes, and active-minor storm at high latitudes,
due to a recurrent coronal hole which has moderate solar wind
speed associated with it.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable conditions during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 4 near predicted monthly values
07 May 8 about 5% above predicted monthly values
08 May 6 0 to 5% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Extensive night-time spread-F observed at equatorial
(Cocos Is, Vanimo, Niue) and northern Australian (Darwin, Townsville)
sites and often extending to mid-latitude sites (Bisbane, Norfolk
Is), indicating strong upwelling in the equatorial ionospheric
anomaly. Townsville observed strong night absorption and dusk
sporadic-E. Overall there were moderate afternoon depletions
and dusk enhancements at equatorial and northern Australian sites.
Average conditions expected for 6th May UT and then mild enhancements
7-8th May due to moderate geomagnetic activity from enhanced
solar wind speed due to a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 41900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list