[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 23 10:43:17 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The high-speed solar-wind stream (HSSWS) from a recurrent
coronal hole the solar wind stream peaked at 460km/sec at 06UT
and then declined and remained around 420km/sec since. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turned negative
at ~18UT and has remained southwards till at least 23UT, effectively
merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar activity remained at
very low levels with no sunspot regions on the disc and is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22210112
Darwin 2 11210002
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 22210112
Camden 4 1220----
Canberra 2 12200001
Hobart 2 12200001
Casey(Ant) 8 33311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 0113 3123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 2 Quiet
24 Mar 2 Quiet
25 Mar 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity declined from Unsettled to Quiet
levels at mid and low latitudes during the UT day as the solar
wind speed declined with the lessening effect of the high-speed
solar-wind stream, as the coronal hole rotated off the western
solar limb. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) turned negative at ~18UT and has remained southwards till
at least 23UT, merging with the geomagnetic field and causing
Storm level activity at auroral zone latitudes, although the
polar cap remains Quiet. If the Bz southwards persists until
early into the 23rd UT day (moderate likelihood) the polar cap
will become at least Active, and if Bz southward persists late
into the UT day (low likelihood), mid-latitudes will also likely
be Unsettled to Active.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values
24 Mar -5 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
25 Mar -5 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF maximum frequencies were enhanced on average across
the region over the entire UT day, but there were significant
variations. This was due to the geomagnetic enhancements from
the high-speed solar-wind stream from the coronal hole. Most
stations from Equatorial (Niue) to Southern (Hobart) showed a
significant depletion in F region frequencies in the local afternoon
followed by a significant enhancement after dusk. This was most
pronounced in Northern Australia (Darwin, Townsville, Learmonth).
There was widespread and significant spread-F due to the geomagnetic
disturbance. Across the region MUFs were enhanced slightly above
predicted monthly averages. Conditions are expected to return
to near monthly or slightly below over the UT day. Equatorial
latitudes may remain enhanced and disturbed for an extra day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list