[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 21 10:46:53 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: As anticipated, solar activity remained at very
low levels and due to the effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole the solar wind
speed showed a gradual increase from 300 to 400 km/s over
the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF remained
slightly to moderately (upto around +9nT) positive for most
part of the UT day today. The effect of the coronal hole
may keep the solar wind stream strengthened on 21 March.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21211212
Darwin 4 21211112
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 5 22210221
Camden - --------
Canberra 2 10110111
Hobart 2 10110111
Casey(Ant) 8 32321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 5 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
22 Mar 4 Quiet
23 Mar 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may show slight rise upto
unsettled levels on 21 March due to the effect of a high
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. The
activity level is then expected to remain mostly at quiet
levels for the following 2 days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic
activity levels, the HF conditions may show minor degradations
on 21 March, especially on high and some mid latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
22 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values
23 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be
observed across southern Aus/NZ regions on 21 March
due to an anticipated sligth rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on this day. HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal on most locations on 22 and 23 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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