[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 20 10:21:13 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed unexpectedly declined further to ~280km/s,
well below quiescent levels, at the of the UT day. However there
was significant variability indicating imminent onset of the
coronal hole high-speed solar-wind stream. The small coronal
hole near the solar equator and west of the central meridian,
is still visible in the SOHO spacecraft EIT 195 imagery and is
in expected geoeffective position. The resultant increase in
solar wind speed and variability can still be seen at the STEREO-B
spacecraft, which is ahead of the Earth in terms of solar rotation
effects. Expected Vsw is up to 500km/sec. The coronal hole high-speed
solar-wind stream (HSSWS) should be geoeffective today or tomorrow,
20-21 March UT. The IMF Bz turned sharply southwards at the ACE
spacecraft at 21UT but appears to be returning northward at 23UT
so geomagnetic merging should be limited. The solar disc is presently
spotless.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12213011
Darwin 3 12112002
Townsville 7 22223122
Learmonth 4 12113001
Camden 3 1-------
Canberra 3 12103001
Hobart 3 11113001
Casey(Ant) 8 23323111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 4 Quiet to unsettled
21 Mar 4 Unsettled
22 Mar 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed (Vsw) unexpectedly declined further
to ~280km/s, well below quiescent levels, at the of the UT day,
so onset of the coronal-hole high-speed solar-wind stream (HSSWS)is
later than expected. However there was significant variability
in Vsw indicating imminent onset of the HSSWS, and there were
some resultant Unsettled periods (esp ~14UT) at mid-latitudes.
The small coronal hole near the solar equator and west of the
central meridian, is still visible in the SOHO spacecraft EIT
195 imagery and in expected geoeffective position. The resultant
increase in solar wind speed and variability can still be seen
at the STEREO-B spacecraft, which is ~2 days ahead of the Earth
in terms of solar rotation effects. Expected Vsw is up to 500km/sec.
The HSSWS should be geoeffective today or tomorrow,20-21 March
UT. The effect should only be moderate with Unsettled and possibly
sporadic Active geomagnetic conditions at mid-latitudes. The
IMF Bz turned sharply southwards at the ACE spacecraft at 21UT
but appears to be returning northward at 23UT and geomagnetic
merging appears to be limited to Active in the auroral zone.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
22 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Coronal hole high-speed solar-wind stream (HSSWS) should
be geoeffective today or tomorrow, 20-21 March UT. Expect mild
mid and high latitude disturbances and a possible small rise
in MUFs. Equatorial response will likely lag mid-latidues by
a about a day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar -4 near predicted monthly values
22 Mar -4 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near monthly predicted HF frequencies during
the UT day. The effect of a small coronal hole is later than
expected but should commence today or tomorrow, with slightly
increased geomagnetic activity. See Geophysical and Solar sections.
This will likely raise ionisation and HF frequencies to at least
monthly predicted levels for a day or two. Extensive spread F
and sporadic Es were again observed, particularly at equatorial
latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 10400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list