[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 19 10:37:50 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined to ~320km/s, below quiescent 
level, by the end of the UT day. The upcoming small coronal hole, 
near the solar equator and west of the central meridian, is still 
visible in the SOHO spacecraft EIT 195 imagery, although it seems 
to have weakened a little. The resultant increase in solar wind 
speed and variability can be seen at the STEREO-B spacecraft, 
which is ahead of the Earth in terms of solar rotation effects. 
Expected Vsw is ~500km/sec. The coronal hole high-speed solar-wind 
stream (HSSWS) should be geoeffective today or tomorrow, 19-20th 
March UT. The IMF Bz turned sharply southwards at the ACE spacecraft 
at 09UT but returned northward by 11UT. The solar disc is presently 
spotless but AR1013 was due to return on the 18th if it survived 
rearside solar transit. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11112001
      Darwin               2   11101002
      Townsville           5   12212122
      Learmonth            2   12012000
      Camden               2   11012001
      Canberra             1   11001000
      Hobart               1   10012000
      Casey(Ant)           6   23222110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1010 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar     5    Quiet to unsettled 
20 Mar     5    Unsettled 
21 Mar     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic conditions early in the UT day as 
the Vsw has still decreased and settled at slightly below quiescent 
levels at ~320km/sec. The upcoming small coronal hole is near 
the solar equator and west of the central meridian. The SOHO 
EIT 195 imagery appears to show a slight weakening of the hole 
since yesterday. The resultant increase in solar wind speed and 
variability can be seen at the STEREO-B spacecraft, which is 
ahead of the Earth in terms of solar wind rotation effects. Expected 
Vsw is ~500km/sec. The coronal hole high-speed solar-wind stream 
(HSSWS) should be geoeffective today or tomorrow, 19-20th March 
UT. The effect should only be moderate with Quiet-Unsettled and 
possibly sporadic Active geomagnetic conditions at mid-latitudes. 
The IMF Bz turned sharply southwards at the ACE spacecraft at 
09UT but returned northward by 11UT and geomagnetic effects appear 
to be negligible outside the auroral zone. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
20 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
21 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Coronal hole high-speed solar-wind stream (HSSWS) should 
be geoeffective today or tomorrow, 19-20th March UT. Expect mild 
mid and high latitude disturbances and a possible small rise 
in MUFs. Equatorial response will likely lag mid-latidues by 
a about a day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Mar    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Mar    -4    0 to 5% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect near or slightly below monthly predicted HF
frequencies early in the UT day. The effect of a small coronal hole should 
commence late today, 19th March UT, or early tomorrow, with slightly 
increased geomagnetic activity. See geomagnetic and solar sections. 
This will likely raise ionisation and HF frequencies to near 
monthly predicted levels for a day or two. Extensive spread F 
and sporadic Es was observed, particularly at equatorial latitudes. 
Darwin- pre-dawn Es and spread-F. Vanimo - pre-dawn spread-F. 
Nuie - dusk and pre-dawn strong spread-F and daytime blanketing 
Es. Cocos Is - dusk spread-F. Hobart - night spread-F and dusk 
Es. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    28400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list