[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 18 10:38:29 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed further declined to ~370km/s by
the end of the UT day. The upcoming small coronal hole, near
the solar equator and slightly west of the central meridian,
is still visible in the SOHO spacecraft EIT 195 imagery. The
resultant increase in solar wind speed and disturbance can already
be seen at the STEREO-B spacecraft, which is ahead of the Earth
in terms of solar rotation effects. The coronal hole high-speed
solar-wind stream (HSSWS) should be geoeffective in 1-2 days,
19-20th March UT. The IMF Bz was southwards at the ACE spacecraft
for an extended period 14-22UT, causing prolonged merging with
the geomagnetic field into the polar regions. The solar disc
is presently spotless but AR1013 is due to return on the 18th
if it survived rearside solar transit.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12111211
Darwin 4 12111212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22012211
Camden 2 11011111
Canberra 1 11001100
Hobart 2 11002101
Casey(Ant) 8 23321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 1220
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 3 Quiet
19 Mar 5 Quiet to unsettled
20 Mar 5 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next one
to two days as the Vsw is still slowly decreasing and currently
at near quiescent 370km/sec. The upcoming small coronal hole
is near the solar equator and slightly west of the central meridian.
The resultant increase in solar wind speed and disturbance can
already be seen at the STEREO-B spacecraft, which is ahead of
the Earth in terms of solar rotation effects. The coronal hole
high-speed solar-wind stream (HSSWS) should be geoeffective in
1-2 days, 19-20th March UT. The effect should only be moderate
with Quiet-Unsettled with possibly sporadic Active geomagnetic
conditions at mid-latitudes. The IMF Bz was southwards for an
extended period 14-22UT today, causing prolonged merging with
the geomagnetic field into the polar regions and an increase
in activity to Storm levels in the auroral zone from ~20-24UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 0 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
19 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near or slightly below monthly predicted HF
frequencies
for the next day. The effect of a small coronal hole should commence
in ~2 days, 19th March UT, with slightly increased geomagnetic
activity which will likely raise ionisation and HF frequencies
to near monthly predicted levels for a day or two. Nightime blanketing
sporadic-E that obscured the F-layer was observed on the eastern
seaboard.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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