[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 17 10:32:31 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed further declined to 400-420km/s
by 07UT and has remained there since. A small coronal hole near
the equator is currently at the centre of the solar disc in the
SOHO spacecraft EIT 195 imagery and should be geoeffective in
2-3 days, 19-20th March UT. The solar disc is presently spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21221221
Darwin 6 21221222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 9 31232330
Camden 5 21221221
Canberra 5 21221211
Hobart 4 21222110
Casey(Ant) 9 33331111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3322 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 3 Quiet
18 Mar 3 Quiet
19 Mar 5 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next two
to three days as the Vsw has stabilised at slightly above average
levels at 400-420km/sec since 07UT. A small coronal hole now
at the centre of the solar disc and should take effect with enhanced
solar wind speed and geomagnetic activity 19-20th March. The
effect should only be moderate with Unsettled to perhaps Active
geomagnetic conditions at mid-latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar -4 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
18 Mar -4 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
19 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: GOES spacecraft solar x-ray flux data shows a slight
increase in background x-ray flux, resulting in a slight increase
in the ionisation of the ionosphere. Expect near monthly predicted
to 5% below HF frequencies for the next two days, unless solar
x-ray activity declines to previous levels. The effect of a small
coronal hole should begin in 3 days, 19th March UT, with slightly
increased geomagnetic activity which will likely raise ionisation
and frequencies to near monthly predicted levels for a day or
two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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