[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed has declined to 450km/s at the 
time of this report and is expected to continue to decrease to 
350-380 km/s over the UT day. The solar disk is presently spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22322101
      Darwin               5   12222102
      Townsville           9   23322222
      Learmonth            7   22322202
      Camden               5   12322101
      Canberra             5   12321101
      Hobart               6   22322101
      Casey(Ant)          11   34422201
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3222 1223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     4    Quiet 
17 Mar     2    Quiet 
18 Mar     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next three 
days as the effects of the high speed solar wind stream returns
to normal levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Mar    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values 
17 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values 
18 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: GOES solar x-ray flux data shows a slight increase in 
background x-ray flux , resulting in an increase in the ionisation 
of the ionosphere. Expect near predicted HF frequency conditions 
for the next three days, unless solar x-ray activity returns 
to previous levels. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 564 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   140000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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