[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: ACE spacecraft showed the solar wind speed ranging from 
520 to 580 on 14 March due to the recurrent coronal hole. The 
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component fluctuated between 
+/- 4nT. Expect the solar wind to return to normal levels 15-17 March. 
The solar disk is presently spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22331322
      Darwin               8   21231322
      Townsville          11   22332323
      Learmonth            9   22331322
      Camden               8   21231322
      Canberra             6   11230312
      Hobart               9   22331322
      Casey(Ant)          14   3-432323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              15   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   5442 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar     4    Quiet 
16 Mar     4    Quiet 
17 Mar     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next three 
days as the effects of the high speed solar wind stream fade.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Mar    0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
16 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
17 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Expect slightly depressed conditions at low to mid latitudes 
due to very low solar activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 527 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   240000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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