[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 14 10:20:33 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: ACE spacecraft showed the solar wind speed increase 
from 350 to 550 on 13 March due to the recurrent coronal hole. 
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component was southward 
to about -10nT between 2300UT 12 March and 0100UT 13 March. Otherwise 
fluctuated between -/+5nT for the remainder of 13 March. The 
solar wind is expected to remain elevated for 14 March and return 
to normal levels on 15 March. The solar disk is presently spotless. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33333322
      Darwin              11   22333322
      Townsville          14   33333332
      Learmonth           15   33333432
      Camden              12   33333321
      Canberra            12   33333321
      Hobart              14   43333322
      Casey(Ant)          19   4-533322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3200 0012     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar    12    Unsettled 
15 Mar     4    Quiet 
16 Mar     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 10 March and 
is current for interval 13-14 March. There was active levels 
of geomagnetic activity at high latitudes early in the UT day 
13 March, otherwise mostly unsettled conditions. Expect unsettled 
conditions for 14 March and a return to quiet conditions 15-16 
March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Mar    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
15 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
16 Mar   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Expect slightly depressed conditions at low to mid latitudes 
due to very low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    42900 K  Bz:   9 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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