[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 13 10:36:01 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: ACE spacecraft showed the solar wind speed ranging from 
340 to 390 km/s on 12 March. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) 
Bz component was southerly to about -9nT early in the UT day 
12 March, however, only remained so for about an hour. Otherwise, 
the IMF Bz component was mainly northward until the last hour, 
about 2300UT, and has shifted to southward again at approximately 
-9nT again. The solar wind is expected to increase to approximately 
600 km/s today, 13 March. The solar disk is presently spotless. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32221112
      Darwin               7   32221113
      Townsville           7   32221222
      Learmonth            9   42221123
      Camden               5   31221012
      Canberra             5   32121012
      Hobart               6   32221012
      Casey(Ant)          10   43321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar    16    active 
14 Mar    12    Unsettled 
15 Mar     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 10 March and 
is current for interval 13-14 March. There was minor activity 
early in the UT day 12 March at high latitudes due to a southerly 
Bz component of the IMF reaching -9nT for aproximately an hour. 
Expect active geomagnetic levels on 13-14 March with isolated 
chances of minor storm levels at high latitudes due to a recurrent 
coronal hole reaching its geo-effective position. On 15 March 
expect geomagnetic conditions to return to quiet levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Mar    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Mar   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
15 Mar   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Expect slightly depressed conditions at low to mid latitudes 
due to very low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    28600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list