[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 13 09:32:20 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar disk is spotless. The solar wind decreased from
440 to 360 as the coronal hole rotates out of the geo-effective
position. Expect the solar wind to decrease to just over 300
km/s and remain at this level for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12221001
Darwin 2 12111001
Townsville 5 12222112
Learmonth 3 11221001
Canberra 1 01111000
Hobart 3 11211101
Casey(Ant) 7 2222----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 4 Quiet
14 Jul 4 Quiet
15 Jul 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Norfolk Island, Townsville, and Darwin ionograms showed
periods of sporadic E over the UT day as well as spread F during
the local night. Hobart showed isolated cases of sporadic E during
local night. Cocos Island showed blanketing sporadic E particularly
at local night. Canberra showed isolated cases of sporadic E
through out the UT day and Brisbane and Sydney showed spread
F during the local night. Expect near monthly predicted values
for MUFs over the next three days. IPSNET ionograms can be viewed
at www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3 for more details of particular
sites.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 45800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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