[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 13 09:32:20 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar disk is spotless. The solar wind decreased from 
440 to 360 as the coronal hole rotates out of the geo-effective 
position. Expect the solar wind to decrease to just over 300 
km/s and remain at this level for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12221001
      Darwin               2   12111001
      Townsville           5   12222112
      Learmonth            3   11221001
      Canberra             1   01111000
      Hobart               3   11211101
      Casey(Ant)           7   2222----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1100 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul     4    Quiet 
14 Jul     4    Quiet 
15 Jul     4    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Jul     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Norfolk Island, Townsville, and Darwin ionograms showed 
periods of sporadic E over the UT day as well as spread F during 
the local night. Hobart showed isolated cases of sporadic E during 
local night. Cocos Island showed blanketing sporadic E particularly 
at local night. Canberra showed isolated cases of sporadic E 
through out the UT day and Brisbane and Sydney showed spread 
F during the local night. Expect near monthly predicted values 
for MUFs over the next three days. IPSNET ionograms can be viewed 
at www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3 for more details of particular 
sites. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    45800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list