[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 12 09:21:10 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar disk is spotless. The solar wind ranged from 450
to 410 due to a coronal hole. Expect the solar wind to remain
at this level through out the UT day, 12 July and then slowly
decrease to previous levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12210111
Darwin 2 12200011
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 12310110
Camden 2 01200---
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 2 11211001
Casey(Ant) 5 22221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3311 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul 4 Quiet
14 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect quiet to unsettled conditions through out the
UT day, 12 July due to a high speed solar wind stream. Should
return to quiet levels on 13-14 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Brisbane, Norfolk Island, Niue, and Darwin ionograms
showed periods of sporadic E over the UT day as well as spread
F during the local night. Hobart showed spread F over the 1st
half of the local night. Cocos Island showed sporadic E during
the local evening and night. Expect mostly normals values for
MUFs over the next three days. IPSNET ionograms can be viewed
at www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3 for more details of particular
sites.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 84400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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