[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 11 09:39:05 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT CORRECTION
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Region 1024 has rotated out of view. Solar disk is spotless. 
The solar wind increased from 370 to 460 due to a coronal hole visible 
on the SOHO EIT 195 images. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23221112
      Darwin               7   33221112
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            8   33222212
      Camden               5   23121111
      Canberra             3   13111001
      Hobart               5   23121111
      Casey(Ant)           6   23221112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              12   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1021 0133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jul     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect quiet to unsettled coditions for the next two 
days due to a high speed solar wind stream with possible active 
periods at high latitudes. Should return to quiet levels on 13 
July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values 
12 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Isolated cases of sporadic E noted noted in Sydney through 
out the UT day. Sporadic E noted at Brisbane during the local 
day time hours and around the sunset hours at Darwin and Cocos 
Island. Expect mostly normals values for MUFs over the next three 
days. IPSNET ionograms can be viewed at www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3 
for more details of particular sites. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    47700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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