[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 11 09:35:38 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Region 1024 (S25,W61) has rotated out of view. Solar
disk is spotless. The solar wind increased from 370 to 460 due
to a coronal hole visible on the SOHO EIT 195 images.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 23221112
Darwin 7 33221112
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 8 33222212
Camden 5 23121111
Canberra 3 13111001
Hobart 5 23121111
Casey(Ant) 6 23221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 11 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1021 0133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect quiet to unsettled coditions for the next two
days due to a high speed solar wind stream with possible active
periods at high latitudes. Should return to quiet levels on 13
July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated cases of sporadic E noted noted in Sydney through
out the UT day. Sporadic E noted at Brisbane during the local
day time hours and around the sunset hours at Darwin and Cocos
Island. Expect mostly normals values for MUFs over the next three
days. IPSNET ionograms can be viewed at www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3
for more details of particular sites.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 47700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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