[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 14 09:42:40 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar disk is spotless. Solar wind parameters increased 
over the second half of the UT day indicating onset of a mild 
coronal hole wind stream. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11123222
      Darwin               6   11122322
      Townsville          10   22223332
      Learmonth            8   12222332
      Camden               5   0111322-
      Canberra             4   01112222
      Hobart               7   11123322
      Casey(Ant)           6   121231--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1111 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jul     5    Quiet 
16 Jul     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the first half 
of the UT day. Onset of a mild coronal hole wind stream around 
12UT resulted in mostly unsettled conditions for the second half 
of the UT day. Expect continuing unsettled conditions day one, 
declining to mostly quiet days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jul     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable conditions over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions generally near predicted monthly 
values. Mild daytime depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions, 
with isolated periods of sporadic E. Periods of weak conditions 
observed S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect mostly normal conditions 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    34100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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