[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 25 10:05:27 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and 
is expected to remain that way for the next three days. A new 
cycle spot group (AR1013 at N27E22) was numbered in the last 
24 hours. Under the influence of a coronal hole the solar wind 
remains mildly elevated (near 450km/s) with the IMF Bz component 
fluctuating between +/-5 nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Mostly Quiet. Isolated
active periods at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 24 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221111
      Darwin               5   12221112
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            5   22221111
      Camden               5   12212112
      Canberra             3   12211101
      Hobart               4   12221101
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-422111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1000 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb     3    Quiet 
26 Feb     3    Quiet 
27 Feb     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet over the 
UT day. Isolated Active periods were observed at high latitudes 
early in the UT day, likely associated with auroral zone activity. 
Generally Quiet conditions expected next three days. Isolated 
Active periods possible at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair          
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Feb   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 Feb   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region over 
the last 24 hours. MUFs are generally slightly depressed due 
to low solar activity, particularly during the day. These 
conditions are expected to continue for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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