[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 24 10:03:21 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low,
and is expected to remain that way for the next three days. Under
the influence of a coronal hole the solar wind remains mildly
elevated (near 450km/s) with the IMF Bz component fluctuating
between +/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22122322
Darwin 5 21212221
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 8 21122332
Camden 6 11112322
Canberra 8 -----321
Hobart 5 11112321
Casey(Ant) 10 33-32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 7 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0022 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 5 Quiet
25 Feb 3 Quiet
26 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet over the
UT day with an Unsettled period near 1600UT in response to a
period of sustained southwards IMF. Generally Quiet conditions
expected next three days. Periods of Unsettled to Active conditions
possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Feb -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region over
the last 24 hours with just some minor MUF depressions observed
during the day. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for the next three days with continuing mild MUF depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 85700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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