[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 20 10:26:02 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very 
low. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 300 
km/s to 340 km/s during this period and the Bz component 
of IMF stayed between +/-3nT of the normal value for most 
part of the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at 
very low levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Darwin               3   11110202
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            2   11010201
      Camden               2   10100201
      Canberra             1   0001--11
      Hobart               2   11011201
      Casey(Ant)           6   23221211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   2000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb     4    Quiet 
21 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Feb     6    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels for 
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected on 20 
February. Some enhancement in geomagnetic activity are 
expected on 21 and 22 February due to the effect of a high 
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
21 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations with some possibility of minor to mild MUF 
depressions at times on 20 February. Mild to moderate degradations 
in conditions may be possible on 21 and 22 February, espcecially 
at mid and high latitude locations due to an expected rise 
in geomagnetic activity on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Feb    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
21 Feb   -12    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
22 Feb   -12    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations on 20 February and periods 
of minor to moderate degradations on 21 and 22 February may be 
observed due to an expected rise in the geomagnetic activity 
levels on 21 and 22 February. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 335 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    29200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list