[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 19 10:30:40 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very
low. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from 360
km/s to 300 km/s during this period and the Bz component
of IMF stayed between +/-2nT of the normal value for most
part of the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 12110112
Darwin 2 -1100112
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 12110212
Camden 3 21110111
Canberra 1 10000111
Hobart 3 02111111
Casey(Ant) 8 23331112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 3 Quiet
20 Feb 3 Quiet
21 Feb 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels for the
last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next two
days. Some enhancement in geomagnetic activity may be observed
on 21 February as a recurrent coronal hole takes a geoeffective
position around that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations with some possibility of minor to mild MUF
depressions at times for the next two days. Mild to moderate
degradations in conditions may be possible on the third day
espcecially at high latitudes due to an expected rise in
geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Feb -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Slightly depressed conditions possible for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 33800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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