[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 18 10:14:10 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very
low. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from 440 km/s
to 350 km/s during this period and the Bz component of IMF
stayed close to the normal value. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 1 --100002
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 3 22101101
Camden 1 11001011
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 010-----
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 3 Quiet
19 Feb 3 Quiet
20 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels for
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations with some possibility of minor to mild MUF
depressions at times for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb -14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Feb -14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Feb -14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Slightly depressed conditions possible for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 77600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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