[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 21 10:29:54 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very 
low. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 320 km/s 
to 360 km/s during this period and the Bz component of IMF 
stayed between +/-3nT of the normal value for most part of 
the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low 
levels for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22211222
      Darwin               5   22111222
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   22211222
      Camden               3   11111112
      Canberra             3   11110112
      Hobart               4   21211112
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-321222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Feb     7    Quiet to unsettled 
23 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels for 
the last 24 hours. Some enhancements in geomagnetic activity 
are expected on 21 and 22 February due to the effect of a 
high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 
Mostly quiet conditions may be expected on 23 February. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in conditions may be 
possible on 21 and 22 February, espcecially at mid and high 
latitude locations due to an expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity on these days. Mostly normal conditions may be 
expected on most locations on 23 February. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Feb   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb   -13    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
22 Feb   -13    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
23 Feb   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions may 
be observed on 21 and 22 February due to an expected rise in 
the geomagnetic activity levels on these days. Mostly normal 
conditions may be expected on most locations on 23 February. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 311 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    20700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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