[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 15 10:54:49 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low,
with no flare activity. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next 3 days. Solar wind parameters increased with
the arrival of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole. The solar wind velocity increased from 300km/s
to be ~600km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between
+/-13nT with notable sustained southward periods.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 17 23444313
Darwin 13 23343213
Townsville 16 23344323
Learmonth 24 34545313
Camden 16 23435212
Canberra 13 13434212
Hobart 20 13535313
Casey(Ant) 20 35-43323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
16 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the last
24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours with the onsent of the high speed solar wind stream
form the recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for 16Feb-17Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
16 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
17 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb -15 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
16 Feb -10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Feb -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local day and night
for Equatorial regions. Depressed MUFs during local day for Northern
AUS regions. Southern AUS/NZ regions had mostly normal conditions
as well as Anarctic regions, but with notable disturbed periods
at higher latitudes due to the increase in geomagnetic activity.
MUF depressions ranging from 10% to 30% are expected for all
regions over the next 3 days with possible disturbed periods
for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 17500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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