[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 14 10:43:50 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low. 
Region 1012 produced another B class event, a B2.3 flare at 0547UT. 
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 
Solar wind velocity ranged between 340km/s and 320km/s. Bz ranged 
between +/-3nT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21101112
      Darwin               3   21101112
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            4   22001122
      Camden               1   10001111
      Canberra             2   11001111
      Hobart               2   11101111
      Casey(Ant)           8   23321122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   1001 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Feb    12    Unsettled 
16 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels over the 
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next 24 hours followed by mostly Unsettled conditions with 
possible Active periods due to coronal hole effects on 15Feb-16Feb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal-poor    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        
15 Feb      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair   
16 Feb      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Feb   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb   -10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Feb   -15    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
16 Feb   -20    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 12 February 
and is current for interval 12-14 February. Depressed conditions 
observed during local day for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions 
with some disturbed periods. Notable sporadic E observed again 
for low to mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. Southern AUS/NZ 
regions had mostly normal conditions but with depressed MUFs 
during local night. Antarctic regions had mostly normal ionospheric 
support. MUF depressions ranging from 10% to 30% are expected 
for low to mid latitudes over the next 3 days with possible disturbed 
conditions for Antarctic regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    41400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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