[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 13 10:54:48 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low.
Region 1012 produced a B4 class event at 1619UT. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity
ranged between 320km/s and 360km/s. Bz ranged between +/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22121211
Darwin 5 22121202
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 6 23121212
Camden 4 22121201
Canberra 4 22011211
Hobart 5 22122211
Casey(Ant) 7 33221211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2011 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 4 Quiet
14 Feb 4 Quiet
15 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels over the
last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days
followed by Quiet to Unsettled conditions due to coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
15 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Feb -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Feb -15 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 12 February
and is current for interval 12-14 February. Depressed conditions
observed during local night for Northern AUS regions.Equatorial
regions had mostly normal condtions with occasional disturbed
periods. Notable sporadic E observed again for low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Southern AUS/NZ regions had mostly normal
conditions but with depressed MUFs during local night. Antarctic
regions had mostly normal ionospheric support. MUF depressions
ranging from 10% to 20% are expected to continue for low to mid
latitudes and normal conditions for high latitudes over the next
2 days. Possible increase in geomagnetic activity on 15Feb resulting
in disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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