[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 12 10:48:58 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity increased from 300km/s to be 340km/s at the time
of this report. Bz ranged between +/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21211111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 6 32111122
Camden 3 21101111
Canberra 2 21100011
Hobart 3 21211011
Casey(Ant) 6 22321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 1000 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 4 Quiet
13 Feb 4 Quiet
14 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels over the
last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
13 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Feb -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Feb -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local day and night
for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions. Notable sporadic E and disturbed
periods observed for low to mid latitudes over the last 24 hours.
Southern AUS/NZ regions had mostly normal conditions with some
depressed periods during local night. Antarctic regions had mostly
normal ionospheric support. MUF depressions ranging from 10%
to 20% are expected to continue for low to mid latitudes and
normal conditions for high latitudes over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 16000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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