[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 16 10:48:02 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low,
with no flare activity. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed remains elevated due
to the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal
hole, and was ~530km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged
between +/-4nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 23334212
Darwin 8 22233112
Townsville 11 23234222
Learmonth 12 33234212
Camden 8 23233111
Canberra 11 23433111
Hobart 10 23234211
Casey(Ant) 15 3-434222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 1233 4323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 12 Unsettled
17 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the last
24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions are expected over the next
24 hours with isolated Active periods due to the high speed solar
wind stream the from the recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected for 17Feb-18Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
17 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
18 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb -10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Feb -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Feb -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 15 February
and is current for interval 15-17 February. Depressed conditions
observed during local night for Equatorial regions. Depressed
MUFs during local day and night for Northern AUS regions and
depressed conditions during local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Disturbed periods observed for Antarctic regions. MUF depressions
ranging from 10% to 30% are expected for low to mid latitudes
over the next 3 days and continued disturbed periods for Antarctic
regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 501 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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