[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 2 10:43:44 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low and the solar disk has 
no numbered sunspot regions. The solar wind decreased steadily 
during the day down to ~400km/sec which is slightly above average. 
IMF Bz north-south variations were low amplitude but there was 
an extended period 01-10UT of southwards albeit only -2nT, that 
merged with the geomagnetic field. Expect the solar wind to return 
to normal and remain so for the next three days as STEREO-B shows 
shows average ~350km/sec speeds. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22210011
      Darwin               3   31100002
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            3   22210001
      Camden               2   11110011
      Canberra             2   12100010
      Hobart               2   12110010
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   1122 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb     4    Quiet 
03 Feb     4    Quiet 
04 Feb     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: The decrease in the solar wind speed, as coronal hole 
wind stream rotated past Earth, reduced geomagnetic activity 
at mid and equatorial latitudes to Quiet levels. High latitudes 
experienced Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions for the first 
half of the UT day due to merging with the solar IMF magnetic 
field, from Bz mildly southwards for an extended period 01-10UT. 
Expect the geomagnetic field to remain at Quiet levels for the 
next three days apart from any extended merging periods with 
the IMF which will energise high-latitudes first. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Feb   -22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb   -25    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values 
03 Feb   -25    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values 
04 Feb   -25    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs and T-index were reduced well below monthly average 
values as the energising effect on the ionosphere of slightly 
enhanced geomagnetic activity, wore off as solar wind speeds 
declined to normal after the passage of a solar coronal hole. 
Sporadic E was again extensive throughout the Australsian region 
and mid-latitude spread-F was above average. Equatorial MUFs 
were again significantly enhanced and depressed due to winds 
and tides in the thermsophere at 300km altitude. Expect similar 
condition to prevail for the next three days with depressions 
to continue in the low to mid latitudes due to very low solar 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 460 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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