[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 2 10:34:09 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low and the solar disk has
no numbered sunspot regions. The solar wind decreased steadily
during the day down to ~400km/sec which is slightly above average.
IMF Bz north-south variations were low amplitude but there was
an extended period 01-10UT of southwards albeit only -2nT, that
merged with the geomagnetic field. Expect the solar wind to return
to normal and remain so for the next three days as STEREO-B shows
average ~350km/sec speeds.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22210011
Darwin 3 31100002
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 3 22210001
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 2 12100010
Hobart 2 12110010
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 1122 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 4 Quiet
03 Feb 4 Quiet
04 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The decrease in the solar wind speed, as coronal hole
wind stream rotated past Earth, reduced geomagnetic activity
at mid and equatorial latitudes to Quiet levels. High latitudes
experienced Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions for the first
half of the UT day due to merging with the solar IMF magnetic
field, from Bz mildly southwards for an extended period 01-10UT.
Expect the geomagnetic field to remain at Quiet levels for the
next three days apart from any extended merging periods with
the IMF which will energise high-latitudes first.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb -25 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
03 Feb -25 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
04 Feb -25 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E noted throughout the Australian region. Hobart,
Casey, Townsville, Vanimo, as well as Cocos and Norfolk Island
ionograms showed ocassional sporadic E. Brisbane, Niue, and Macquarie
Island showed sporadic E blanketing, particularly in the local
night early morning hours. Sydney and Canberra showed sporadic
E blacketing particularly late in the local day time hours. Noted
strong spread F conditions at Mawson, mostly early in the local
day. Expect similar condition to prevail for the next three days
with mild depressions to continue in the low to mid latitudes
due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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