[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 09
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 1 10:55:27 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low and the solar disk has
no numbered sunspot regions. The solar wind increased slightly
overnight, and at the time of this report was approximately 470
km/s with the usual moderate IMF Bz north-south fluctuations.
Expect the solar wind to return to normal levels and remain so
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 33223222
Darwin 7 32222112
Townsville 10 23233222
Learmonth 9 33222222
Camden 9 22323222
Canberra 5 22222111
Hobart 9 23323212
Casey(Ant) 13 4--33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 4 Quiet
02 Feb 4 Quiet
03 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The slight increase in the solar wind speed induced
some unsettled conditions in the Earth's magnetic field during
the UT day, 31 January. However, expect the geomagnetic field
to return to quiet levels and remain so for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values, some minor
depressions, particularly during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values, some minor
depressions, particularly during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with some periods of slight depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Feb -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Feb -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Sporadic E noted throughout the Australian region. Hobart,
Casey, Townsville, Vanimo, as well as Cocos and Norfolk Island
ionograms showed ocassional sporadic E. Brisbane, Niue, and Macquarie
Island showed sporadic E blanketing, particularly in the local
night early morning hours. Sydney and Canberra showed sporadic
E blacketing particularly late in the local day time hours. Noted
strong spread F conditions at Mawson, mostly early in the local
day. Expect similar condition to prevail for the next three days
with mild depressions to continue in the low to mid latitudes
due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 50700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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