[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 3 10:30:55 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar disk has no numbered sunspot regions. The
solar wind speed is currently ~350 km/s and STEREO-B indicates
similar solar wind speeds for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 3 22110101
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 11100001
Casey(Ant) 7 33311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1201 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 5 Quiet
04 Feb 5 Quiet
05 Feb 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed to 40% 00-13 UT then near predicted monthly
values at Niue; sporadic E 10-17 UT. No data for Vanimo.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressions to 50% at Darwin. Depressions to 50% at
Townsville 00-17 UT. Depressions to 40% 11-23 UT at
Cocos Is. Sporadic E mostly evening and night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressions to 35% 00-18 UT Brisbane and Norfolk Is.
At other stations, depressions to 30% 07-15 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
12-19 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb -20 Mostly depressed. Depressions to 30% or more.
04 Feb -20 Mostly depressed. Depressions to 30% or more.
05 Feb -20 Mostly depressed. Depressions to 30% or more.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 2 February
and is current for interval 3-5 February. Sporadic E likely and
may disrupt communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 81600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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