[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 19 10:41:49 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 83/24
COMMENT: Region 1035 (N30 W45) produced a C7.6 flare at 1855
UT while the background x-ray flux remained mostly at B levels.
This region may produce C-class events over the next 24 hours.
The solar wind speed has remained below about 440 km/s while
the Bz component of the IMF has ranged between approx. +/-6nT.
Solar wind and IMF parameters are expected to remain somewhat
disturbed over the next day, becoming further disturbed on day
two due to the effects of the CME on the 16 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11121212
Darwin 5 21121212
Townsville 5 11121222
Learmonth 6 20231212
Canberra 2 10120110
Hobart 2 01220110
Casey(Ant) 10 23432223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0001 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 7 Mostly quiet; isolated unsettled periods possible.
20 Dec 16 Unsettled with isolated active periods. Minor
storm levels possible at high latitudes.
21 Dec 7 Quiet to unsettled with some active periods at
higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
20 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
21 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
16-22 UT and enhancements to 30% 05-11 UT. Sporadic E
observed 00-03, 09-13 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
00-07 and 13-18 UT. Sporadic E observed 05-09, 13 and
18 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20% at
Darwin 08, 09, 15, 16 UT and to 35% at Townsville
00-06 UT. Sporadic E observed at Darwin 00, 03, 05-09,
15 and 20 UT and at Townsville 01, 03-10 and 21-22 UT.
Night spread F observed at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
mostly between 00-07 UT and 19-20 UT (Christchurch)
and 14-16 UT (Norfolk). Sporadic E observed mostly
during daytime.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 30%.
20 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 30%.
21 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Summertime sporadic E may affect communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.47E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 71900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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