[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 20 10:44:03 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Region 1035 (N30 W56) produced a C2.9 flare at 0014
UT. This region has decayed but continues to have the capability
to produce C flares. Two regions were numbered, 1036 (S29 W19)
and 1037 (N18 E54). The solar wind speed has remained below about
440 km/s while the Bz component of the IMF has ranged between
approx. +/-5nT. Solar wind and the IMF are expected to become
disturbed today due to the effects of the CME on the 16 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 5 --310112
Townsville 3 21111012
Learmonth 2 11121001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11111000
Casey(Ant) 9 33432211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 69 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 16 Unsettled with isolated active periods. Minor
storm levels possible at high latitudes.
21 Dec 7 Quiet to unsettled with some active periods at
higher latitudes.
22 Dec 5 Mostly quiet. Unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
21 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 15%
12, 17 and 18 UT. Spread F 17-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
00-06, 11-13, 16-18 and 20 UT. Night spread F. Sporadic
E observed 02, 04-10, 14, 15, 18 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin: near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 20% 08-18 UT and enhancments to 25% 01-05 UT. Spread
F 16-20 UT.
Townsville: near predicted monthly values with
depressions to 25% 05 and 19 UT. Enhancments to 40% 02,
06-08 and 14-15 UT. Sporadic E observed 00 and 15-18 UT
and some morning spread F.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Brisbane: near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 15% 01-05 UT and to 30% 15-18 UT. Sporadic E 03-11,
15-18, 21-23 UT. Some night spread F.
Norfolk Is.: near predicted monthly values with
depressions to 40% 03-05 and 15-18 UT. Sporadic E
observed 00-02 and 16-18, 22, 23 UT. Some night spread F.
Canberra/Sydney: Near predicted monthly values with
depressions to 15% 01-04, 06-08 UT. Enhancements to 25%
00, 19-20 UT. Sporadic E observed at 00-03, 08-12,
and 14-18 UT.
Hobart: near predicted monthly values with depressions to
15% 00-02, 06-09 UT. Sporadic E observed 00-03 UT.
Christchurch: near predicted monthly values with
depressions to 15% 00-07, 21 UT. Some night spread F.
Sporadic E 02-08, 19-20, 22, 23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%. Sporadic E observed 00-03 and
14-19 UT at Macquarie Is. and 00, 09-20 UT at Casey.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 30%.
21 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
22 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Summertime sporadic E may affect communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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