[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 18 10:30:55 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Region 1035 (N30 W32) has kept the background x-ray
flux mostly at B levels over the past day. This region appears
to have decreased in magnetic complexity but may produce C-class
events over the next 24 hours. A CME was observed around 16/2342
UT from LASCO and both STEREO instruments but is not thought
to be Earth directed. The solar wind speed has increased steadily
to around 430 km/s while Bz of the IMF has ranged between approx.
+/-6 nT with a southward period between about 0200 to 0730 UT.
Solar wind and IMF parameters are expected to remain somewhat
disturbed over the next two days, becoming further disturbed
on day three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet. Isolated
unsettled to active periods at higher latitudes.
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11122221
Darwin 5 11122222
Townsville 6 21122222
Learmonth 5 21122221
Canberra 1 01011110
Hobart 3 01121111
Casey(Ant) 9 24332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2101 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
19 Dec 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
20 Dec 16 Unsettled with isolated active periods. Minor
storm levels possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
19 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
20 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 15%
15-20 UT. Sporadic E observed 01-07 and 09 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
01-06, 13-18 and 21-23 UT. Sporadic E observed 01-07,
09 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
at Darwin (03-05, 08-20 UT) and Townsville (03-06 UT).
Sporadic E observed at Darwin (09, 15-19 UT) and
Townsville (10, 11, 20 UT).
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
Brisbane and Norfolk Is. 00-07, 23 UT and at Norfolk
15-18 UT. Depressions to 25% at Canberra and Sydney
01-08, 22-23 UT. Depressions to 15% at Christchurch
and Hobart 00-08 UT. Sporadic E observed mostly 00-08
and 23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressions to 25% at Macquarie Is. 14-16 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec -5 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
19 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 30%.
20 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 30%.
COMMENT: Summertime sporadic E may affect communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 57200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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