[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 17 10:32:39 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec:  83/24

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Region 1035 (N30 W18) produced two C-class flares at 
0124 UT (C5.4) and 1302 (C3.7) along with a number of B-class 
x-ray events. At approx. 0309 UT, a CME was observed by Stereo 
A to erupt from the visible disc, this was also observed by Stereo 
B later. Around 0215 UT, the solar wind increased abruptly and 
has steadily increased to around 360 km/s. Around 23 UT the GOES
instrument observed an increase in x-ray flux to C-class.
Region 1035 may produce C or an isolated M-class flare today. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet. Isolated
unsettled to active periods at higher latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 16 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21122211
      Darwin               4   21121112
      Townsville           5   22122211
      Learmonth            6   31122211
      Canberra             1   11011100
      Hobart               4   22211210
      Casey(Ant)           9   3--32221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec     5    Quiet 
18 Dec     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
19 Dec     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at higher latitudes 
17 to 19 December. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
18 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
19 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Dec   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 15% 01,
      02 and 16-17 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values withe depressions to 30%
      00-05 and 19-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 35% at
      Darwin 03-06, 08-11 and 16-20 UT. Depressions to 25%
      at Townsville 03-05, 17, 18 UT. Sporadic E observed
      11-12 and 16 UT at Darwin and 16-29 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
      Brisbane (00-02, 04-06, 11-14 and 18-22 UT), Norfolk Is. 
      (02-05, 09-15 UT) Hobart (21-23 UT) and Christchurch
      (01, 07, 09 and 18-22 UT). Sporadic E observed at
      various times but mostly 00-09 and 15-23 UT, sometimes
      blanketing.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Depressions to 30% at Macquarie Is. 12-16 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec    -5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
18 Dec    -5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
19 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

COMMENT: Summertime sporadic E may affect communications at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 283 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    16400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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